Sanchez Has One Year Until Spain's Election Deadline, and the Odds Are Against Him

Pedro Sanchez has at most one year before Spanish law requires him to call a general election, a deadline that falls in 2027 at the end of the term that began after the July 2023 vote. The prime minister has insisted he will serve out his mandate and run again, describing it as a necessary response to the rise of the far right in Spain and across Europe.

The road to that election is complicated by the fragility of his governing coalition, after the Catalan party Junts broke its investiture agreement several weeks ago, leaving Sanchez heading a minority government that depends on case by case deals with other parties to pass its legislative agenda.

Adding to that parliamentary weakness is a string of corruption scandals that have touched his inner circle. Investigators link former PSOE organization secretary Santos Cerdan to at least 620,000 euros in kickbacks paid by construction firm Acciona through former minister Jose Luis Abalos, with promises of another 450,000 euros. At the same time, a judge has ordered Sanchez's wife, Begona Gomez, to stand trial on charges of embezzlement, influence peddling, corruption in business dealings and misappropriation of funds, and has demanded she surrender her passport. His brother, David Sanchez, is also under investigation.

The toll is already showing in the polls: the PP stands at around 35 percent voting intention against 27 percent for the PSOE, while Vox has climbed 1.3 points to 15.2 percent. According to the surveys, if elections were held today, Alberto Nunez Feijoo's PP could win an outright majority with Vox's support. Feijoo himself has called for a no confidence vote and early elections, a demand backed by 41.2 percent of Spaniards surveyed.

Sanchez, for his part, counters that political wear with economic figures: Spain has posted GDP growth of close to 3 percent a year since 2023, the highest among Europe's major economies, an argument he is using as the foundation of his campaign heading into 2027 before an increasingly divided electorate.