The Ibex Keeps Setting Records, and Banks Are Doing Most of the Lifting

Spanish equities have reached all time highs, extending a run that began well before this year. The composition of that run is the part worth attending to: banks contributed close to 70 percent of the gains, driven by strong earnings, generous payouts, improving domestic conditions and consolidation across the sector.

There are good reasons for it beyond the banks themselves. Spanish listed companies carry relatively little exposure to the United States, which insulated them from tariff related pressure that hit other European markets harder. Low unemployment, contained inflation and credit rating upgrades did the rest.

The concentration is still the risk. An index in which one sector supplies most of the upside is an index that has taken a directional position, whatever its stated diversification. If lending margins compress, or if the competition case now open against six banking groups produces a material outcome, the thing that drove the rally becomes the thing that drives the correction.

The tourism weighting compounds rather than offsets it. Tourism has been the other strong performer, and tourism and banking are both leveraged to the same domestic economy. They look like different exposures on a sector breakdown and behave like one exposure in a downturn.

None of which is a forecast that the rally ends. Spanish equities have been cheap relative to their earnings for long enough that a rerating was overdue. It is a note that the index is now expressing a fairly specific view about Spanish banks, and holders should know that is the position they are in.